A Real Plan for Missouri: Prioritizing Essentials Over Endless Spending
When the Governor laid out his tax plan in his State of the State address, people may have assumed that plan was to solve their issue of being overtaxed. But the reality is that legislators and the Governor have grown accustomed to spending levels that have ballooned from about $27 billion pre-COVID to $51–54 billion today. Proposals like HJR174 seem designed more to sustain this spending spree than to provide genuine relief. At Act for Missouri, we've analyzed these plans and developed an alternative approach that puts citizens first.
The Governor's Tax Plan: Substitution, Not Reduction
The Governor's proposal to eliminate the personal income tax through HJR174 has been presented as a bold step toward tax relief. We've covered the general problems with this plan in our previous posts: HJR174 Analysis and 2026 Bill Review. But let's revisit the core issue from a new angle.
To maintain this level of spending, they need access to new revenue sources, such as taxing services that are currently exempt (e.g., legal fees, digital advertising, streaming). They also seek to raise sales taxes—potentially to levels much higher than citizens would accept—thus the need to suspend protections under the Hancock Amendment, at least temporarily.
The bottom line: This isn't a tax reduction plan. It's, at best, a tax substitution plan. At its core, it's a power grab to tap into new revenue streams without addressing the root cause—overspending. Missourians are still dealing with high inflation's lingering effects, rising utility costs, and a mess of property taxes, yet the plan doesn't holistically tackle these burdens.
Act for Missouri's Alternative: A Household Budget Approach
At Act for Missouri, we asked: What would a real plan to address Missourians' struggles look like? We believe it should mirror what a responsible household does in tough times—put everything on the table, identify bare essentials, review all income sources, cover necessities first, and then decide on extras.
Our premise starts with the principle that government's purpose is to protect the life, liberty, and property of its citizens. We identified budget items directly tied to these protections, then added constitutionally required spending (primarily education). This formed our "bare essentials" budget.
Before any tax changes, we reviewed revenues and recognized that ~45% come from federal funds—with strings attached. Long-term, Missouri should free itself from this dependence. We propose a five-year phase-out plan to reach zero federal dollars, aligning with national debt concerns (~$38 trillion unsustainable).
Defining Bare Essentials: Principles + Constitution
Using our principles and a strict reading of the Missouri Constitution, we estimated a bare essentials budget of $12–15 billion (high end for buffer). This covers:
| Category | Est. Amount ($B) | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| K-12 Education | 3.5–4.5 | 25% GR floor + dedicated funds; meets 8-month minimum. |
| Higher Education | 0.8–1.2 | "Adequate" maintenance per constitution. |
| Public Safety/Corrections/Courts | 1.5–2.0 | Protective (life/liberty/property); implied mandates. |
| Military/Veterans | 0.2–0.4 | Militia/Guard; dedicated marijuana funds. |
| Debt Service/Liabilities | 1.5–2.5 | Prioritized; pensions/OPEB minima. |
| Infrastructure (Basic Safety) | 2.5–3.0 | Fuel taxes for roads; tied to protection. |
| Total | 12–15 | Compliant; excludes ~$38–41B non-essentials. |
We admit that our $15 billion budget leaves out a lot of stuff—and that's precisely the point. We've included only the absolute bare essentials based on our principles and constitutional requirements. Instead of the government dictating to citizens to adjust their budgets to fit its spending habits, we're flipping the script: forcing the government to adjust its spending to fit our means as citizens!
Revenue Reality and Federal Phase-Out
Current revenues are ~$51–53 billion, with ~$24.5 billion from federal sources. To align with our principles, we propose phasing out federal funds over five years to eliminate strings and dependencies. Non-federal revenues (~$27 billion) grow modestly, providing a stable base.
Five-Year Outlook
| Year | Proposed Spending ($B) | Non-Federal Revenue ($B) | Remaining Federal Funds ($B) | Total Revenue ($B) | Surplus ($B) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | 15.34 | 27.67 | 19.6 | 47.27 | 31.94 |
| FY2027 | 15.68 | 28.37 | 14.7 | 43.07 | 27.38 |
| FY2028 | 16.04 | 29.08 | 9.8 | 38.88 | 22.84 |
| FY2029 | 16.4 | 29.8 | 4.9 | 34.7 | 18.31 |
| FY2030 | 16.77 | 30.55 | 0 | 30.55 | 13.78 |
Even at the high end of our essentials budget, revenues exceed needs each year, creating surpluses (~$114 billion cumulative over five years). Citizens should decide how to use these—tax cuts, eliminations, or worthy programs?
Call to Action: Missourians Deserve Better
Our work highlights that the real issues—overtaxation, inflation, utility costs—aren't addressed by substitution plans. Legislators avoid tough questions about essentials. Join Act for Missouri in demanding a spending-first approach. Share your thoughts below or contact your representatives.