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Everything below is calculated from primary vote totals only. In Missouri's open primary, each voter chooses one party's ballot, so the number of votes cast in each party's primary is a rough measure of turnout and enthusiasm in that district — not a forecast of the November result.
These numbers are easily skewed: a district with a hot contested primary on one side and an unopposed candidate on the other will pull far more voters to the contested ballot, even in a district that party will lose in the fall. Treat the categories below as a map of where to look, not a prediction. Only the "Already decided" section reflects a settled outcome.
1. Seats already decided
Districts where only one major party fielded a candidate. Barring a write-in campaign, the August winner takes the seat.
2. Incumbents defeated in the primary
Sitting legislators who filed for re-election and were beaten inside their own party's primary.
3. November outlook by primary turnout
For every district with both a Republican and a Democrat on the November ballot, we compare the total votes cast in each party's primary and show the share won by the party that currently holds the seat.
4. Flip watch
Districts where the party that currently holds the seat drew fewer primary votes than the challenging party. The most common cause is an uncontested primary on the holding party's side — check the candidate counts before drawing conclusions.
5. Other notable findings
Closest finishes, weakest incumbent performances, and statewide turnout.
6. Data checks
Automatic consistency checks on the underlying results file. Anything listed here should be reviewed before these figures are treated as final.